On October 20th, Lu Ruquan, the President of China Petroleum Corporation's Economic and Technological Research Institute, spoke at the 2023 "Empowering Progress" Summit Forum organized by Shell China, stating that China will accelerate the construction of a new energy system. Natural gas, with its diverse advantages such as cleanliness, low-carbon, flexibility, and efficiency, will become an important component of China's new energy system, and natural gas demand still has great potential.
Guided by the "dual carbon" goal, Lu Ruquan predicted the changes in China's natural gas demand situation in stages.
Before 2035, China's natural gas demand is still in a period of rapid growth, and it is the main energy source that supports the comprehensive green transformation of China's economic and social development. The development of natural gas demand is driven by the continuous replacement of high polluting fuels and the integration of new energy, with a focus on ensuring people's livelihood and supporting energy transformation and industrial upgrading in fields such as power generation, industry, and transportation.
During the period from 2035 to 2040, China's natural gas consumption entered a peak plateau period, driven mainly by the integration of new energy and development, with a peak demand of about 600 billion cubic meters per year. With the acceleration of electrification and the large-scale application of new energy, natural gas will fully play its role in peak shaving of the power system; Continuously replacing high polluting fuels in fields such as land freight and ocean shipping; The decentralized utilization of urban gas is gradually decreasing.
During the period from 2040 to 2060, natural gas will become an important guarantee energy for the new energy system, with the "natural gas+CCUS" centralized decarbonization utilization as the main mode, playing a flexible and easy storage function, and regulating the peak of the energy system.
Lu Ruquan stated that China will continue to fully integrate into the global natural gas industry chain, actively cooperate with all parties to form a mutually beneficial value chain system while achieving the "dual carbon" goal, and play a positive role in global response to climate change and energy transformation.
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